Providence Bruins at Hartford Wolf Pack

XL Center · Hartford, CT

Providence Bruins

4:1

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

PROHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

58%42%

xG: 3.03.0
High danger: 43
Chances: 1410
Shots: 3637

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal37

14Scoring chances10

4High-danger chances3

2.95Expected goals2.96

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–15	4–3	1–0	0.7–1.0
2nd	11–9	5–4	0–2	0.9–1.0
3rd	14–13	5–3	3–1	1.4–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 36
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.96
GSAx: +1.96

Louis Domingue

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 32
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.95
GSAx: -1.05

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:40John Farinacci (1–0)medium · 16 ft · beat Louis Domingue
1st 12:50Penalty
1st 17:15Penalty
1st 17:15Penalty
1st 17:15Penalty
2nd 0:55Georgii Merkulov (2–0)medium · 17 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 2:11Max Jones (3–0)low · 51 ft · beat Louis Domingue
2nd 14:03Penalty
2nd 14:03Penalty
3rd 0:26Penalty
3rd 12:49Penalty
3rd 12:49Penalty
3rd 13:12Jake Leschyshyn (3–1)low · 68 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
3rd 16:00Matthew Poitras (4–1)empty net · high · 11 ft · beat Louis Domingue
3rd 18:16Penalty
3rd 18:16Penalty