AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 28

Rockford IceHogs at Iowa Wild

Wells Fargo Arena · Des Moines, IA

Rockford IceHogs
4:2
Final
Iowa Wild

The sheet

RFDIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
70%30%
xG
3.72.4
High danger
52
Chances
139
Shots
3032

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
IA above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal32
13Scoring chances9
5High-danger chances2
3.71Expected goals2.42

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–86–21–01.5–0.5
2nd14–87–34–12.0–0.8
3rd4–160–40–10.2–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

IA−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
IA116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitchell Weeks
Shots faced
32
Saves
30
Allowed
2
xGA
2.43
GSAx
+0.43
Samuel Hlavaj
Shots faced
30
Saves
26
Allowed
4
xGA
3.71
GSAx
-0.29

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:49Penalty
  • 1st 6:22Penalty
  • 1st 8:17Graeme Clarke (0–1)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 1st 12:38Paul Ludwinski (1–1)grade A · rebound · 3 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 1st 14:53Penalty
  • 1st 19:26Penalty
  • 2nd 2:15Penalty
  • 2nd 2:34Cole Guttman (2–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 2nd 4:00Penalty
  • 2nd 4:00Penalty
  • 2nd 5:49Landon Slaggert (3–1)high · 6 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 2nd 11:09Penalty
  • 2nd 14:54Penalty
  • 2nd 14:54Penalty
  • 2nd 15:41Penalty
  • 2nd 18:26Penalty
  • 2nd 18:26Penalty
  • 3rd 9:42Carson Lambos (3–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Mitchell Weeks
  • 3rd 15:48Penalty
  • 3rd 18:13Colton Dach (4–2)empty net · low · 47 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 3rd 18:51Penalty
  • 3rd 18:51Penalty