Bakersfield Condors at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Bakersfield Condors

5:3

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

BAKSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

56%44%

xG: 2.92.4
High danger: 57
Chances: 1512
Shots: 2618

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal18

15Scoring chances12

5High-danger chances7

2.91Expected goals2.40

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–4	7–2	0–0	1.0–0.4
2nd	9–12	4–9	3–6	1.0–1.8
3rd	8–2	4–1	2–1	0.9–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	2	14:46 of the 3rd	5:14	5:14	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vyacheslav Buteyets

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 21
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.91
GSAx: -2.09

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 10
Saves: 8
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.32
GSAx: -0.68

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 8
Saves: 7
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.07
GSAx: +0.07

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:42Connor Carrick (1–0)medium · 17 ft · beat Vyacheslav Buteyets
1st 5:20Penalty
1st 5:20Penalty
1st 5:20Penalty
1st 8:20Penalty
1st 12:45Penalty
1st 13:24Lane Pederson (2–0)5v4 · medium · 23 ft · beat Vyacheslav Buteyets
1st 15:36Penalty
1st 15:36Penalty
1st 16:31Penalty
2nd 0:42Jan Myšák (2–1)high · 26 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 3:14Penalty
2nd 5:22Nathan Gaucher (2–2)medium · 17 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 5:43Penalty
2nd 9:57Sam Colangelo (2–3)low · 33 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 18:28Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 5:28Penalty
3rd 6:20Drake Caggiula (3–3)5v4 · high · 5 ft · beat Vyacheslav Buteyets
3rd 11:14Penalty
3rd 11:14Penalty
3rd 11:14Penalty
3rd 11:14Penalty
3rd 11:14Penalty
3rd 12:27Seth Griffith (4–3)5v4 · medium · 8 ft · beat Vyacheslav Buteyets
3rd 14:46Lane Pederson (5–3)high · 20 ft · beat Vyacheslav Buteyets
3rd 18:33Penalty