AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, December 29

Texas Stars at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Texas Stars
6:2
Final
Manitoba Moose

The sheet

TEXMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
59%41%
xG
2.41.9
High danger
33
Chances
66
Shots
2920

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MB above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal20
6Scoring chances6
3High-danger chances3
2.36Expected goals1.94

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–43–12–00.9–0.2
2nd11–81–31–20.9–0.9
3rd8–82–20–10.6–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB30:12 of the 3rd19:4819:48+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Kaapo Kähkönen
Shots faced
29
Saves
23
Allowed
6
xGA
2.36
GSAx
-3.64
Magnus Hellberg
Shots faced
20
Saves
18
Allowed
2
xGA
1.94
GSAx
-0.06

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 10:31Penalty
  • 1st 15:28Arttu Hyry (1–0)high · rebound · 9 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 2nd 4:13Penalty
  • 2nd 6:20Matěj Blümel (2–0)low · 39 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 2nd 7:06Penalty
  • 2nd 7:06Penalty
  • 2nd 7:06Penalty
  • 2nd 7:06Penalty
  • 2nd 7:06Penalty
  • 2nd 9:39Penalty
  • 2nd 12:48Arttu Hyry (3–0)low · 32 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 2nd 13:49Mason Shaw (3–1)low · 20 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 0:12Arttu Hyry (4–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 3rd 3:46Penalty
  • 3rd 5:55Cameron Hughes (5–1)medium · 25 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
  • 3rd 6:49Penalty
  • 3rd 14:38Ashton Sautner (5–2)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 15:21Antonio Stranges (6–2)low · 23 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen