Cleveland Monsters at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Cleveland Monsters

4:1

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

CLEMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 2.33.8
High danger: 46
Chances: 1015
Shots: 2734

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal34

10Scoring chances15

4High-danger chances6

2.33Expected goals3.83

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–11	3–2	1–0	1.0–0.7
2nd	6–14	3–8	2–3	0.6–1.7
3rd	7–9	4–5	1–3	0.7–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	3	6:10 of the 3rd	13:50	13:50	+0.019 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jet Greaves

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 33
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.83
GSAx: +2.83

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.33
GSAx: -1.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:03Penalty
1st 8:41Owen Sillinger (1–0)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 2:09Penalty
2nd 7:03Justin Pearson (2–0)high · 164 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 11:22Penalty
2nd 13:47Penalty
2nd 18:14Ozzy Wiesblatt (2–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Jet Greaves
3rd 1:28Rocco Grimaldi (3–1)medium · 19 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 4:42Penalty
3rd 6:10Daemon Hunt (4–1)5v4 · medium · 23 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 10:25Penalty
3rd 10:25Penalty
3rd 17:57Penalty
3rd 18:33Penalty