Abbotsford Canucks at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Abbotsford Canucks

3:4

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

ABBCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

59%41%

xG: 2.72.2
High danger: 22
Chances: 98
Shots: 3226

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal26

9Scoring chances8

2High-danger chances2

2.65Expected goals2.17

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–11	4–5	1–1	1.3–1.2
2nd	5–8	0–2	0–1	0.3–0.6
3rd	12–7	5–1	1–0	1.0–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	1	17:06 of the 3rd	2:54	2:54	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devin Cooley

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 29
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.65
GSAx: -0.35

Artūrs Šilovs

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 22
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.17
GSAx: -1.83

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:11Artem Grushnikov (0–1)low · slap · rebound · 52 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
1st 1:24Penalty
1st 4:02Penalty
1st 6:22William Strömgren (0–2)medium · wrist · rebound · 14 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
1st 15:10Penalty
1st 17:31Penalty
2nd 5:10Penalty
2nd 6:16Jonathan Lekkerimäki (1–2)5v4 · low · 27 ft · beat Devin Cooley
2nd 11:34Penalty
3rd 8:14Penalty
3rd 15:09Nate Smith (2–2)medium · tip · 19 ft · beat Devin Cooley
3rd 17:06Clark Bishop (2–3)low · wrist · 33 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
3rd 18:42Clark Bishop (2–4)empty net · low · wrist · 147 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
3rd 19:51Linus Karlsson (3–4)medium · wrist · 22 ft · beat Devin Cooley
3rd 20:00Penalty