Texas Stars at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Texas Stars

3:1

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

TEXMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

59%41%

xG: 1.62.1
High danger: 52
Chances: 78
Shots: 2322

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal22

7Scoring chances8

5High-danger chances2

1.64Expected goals2.07

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–4	1–1	1–0	0.4–0.3
2nd	11–7	3–2	2–0	0.7–0.6
3rd	6–11	3–5	2–2	0.6–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	3	3:40 of the 3rd	16:20	9:23	+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 20
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.64
GSAx: -1.36

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 21
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.07
GSAx: +1.07

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:17Penalty
1st 1:17Penalty
1st 13:06Penalty
2nd 7:05Arttu Hyry (1–0)medium · 8 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 12:33Penalty
2nd 14:57Penalty
2nd 18:32Penalty
2nd 19:32Matěj Blümel (2–0)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 3:40Kole Lind (3–0)medium · 28 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 5:12Axel Jonsson-Fjällby (3–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 6:35Penalty
3rd 12:17Penalty
3rd 16:50Penalty