AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, December 31

Iowa Wild at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Iowa Wild
5:4
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

IARFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
43%57%
xG
2.62.7
High danger
34
Chances
109
Shots
3132

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal32
10Scoring chances9
3High-danger chances4
2.55Expected goals2.68

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–41–10–00.5–0.3
2nd14–124–41–21.2–1.1
3rd8–165–42–20.9–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD213:55 of the 3rd6:056:05+0.026 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Samuel Hlavaj
Shots faced
32
Saves
28
Allowed
4
xGA
2.68
GSAx
-1.32
Drew Commesso
Shots faced
31
Saves
26
Allowed
5
xGA
2.55
GSAx
-2.45

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:19Hunter Haight (1–0)medium · 7 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 1st 4:11Penalty
  • 1st 4:47Brendan Gaunce (2–0)5v4 · low · 60 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 1st 9:21Penalty
  • 1st 16:59Penalty
  • 2nd 2:27Penalty
  • 2nd 12:01Penalty
  • 2nd 13:12Zach Sanford (2–1)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 2nd 15:19Brandon Baddock (2–2)medium · 11 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 2nd 16:45Penalty
  • 2nd 17:09Brendan Gaunce (3–2)5v4 · grade A · 10 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 17:51Penalty
  • 2nd 17:51Penalty
  • 2nd 17:51Penalty
  • 2nd 18:19Brendan Gaunce (4–2)5v4 · medium · 36 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 18:31Penalty
  • 3rd 2:22Penalty
  • 3rd 3:18Penalty
  • 3rd 9:25Penalty
  • 3rd 11:08Cavan Fitzgerald (4–3)5v4 · low · 56 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
  • 3rd 13:55Caedan Bankier (5–3)high · rebound · 24 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 18:38Colton Dach (5–4)medium · 19 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj