Ontario Reign at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Ontario Reign

4:3

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

ONTHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

42%58%

xG: 3.74.1
High danger: 56
Chances: 1214
Shots: 4043

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal43

12Scoring chances14

5High-danger chances6

3.70Expected goals4.08

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–11	6–6	3–3	1.4–1.4
2nd	10–14	2–3	0–0	0.7–1.0
3rd	15–18	4–5	2–3	1.6–1.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 43
Saves: 40
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.08
GSAx: +1.08

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 36
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.70
GSAx: -0.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:07Penalty
1st 3:52Taylor Ward (1–0)high · backhand · rebound · 18 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
1st 12:15Penalty
1st 12:15Penalty
1st 19:17Penalty
1st 19:17Penalty
2nd 3:01Penalty
2nd 3:52Brendan Brisson (1–1)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 4:53Matyas Sapovaliv (1–2)low · 64 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 6:31Jack Studnicka (2–2)low · 26 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
2nd 19:49Glenn Gawdin (3–2)low · 35 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 6:21Penalty
3rd 10:54Penalty
3rd 18:52Francesco Pinelli (4–2)empty net · medium · 10 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 19:57Jake Bischoff (4–3)high · rebound · 14 ft · beat Erik Portillo