Colorado Eagles at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Colorado Eagles

1:4

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

COLCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

56%44%

xG: 2.12.0
High danger: 44
Chances: 86
Shots: 2422

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal22

8Scoring chances6

4High-danger chances4

2.10Expected goals2.01

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–8	2–1	2–0	0.7–0.3
2nd	9–9	4–3	2–2	0.8–0.9
3rd	9–5	2–2	0–2	0.6–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	3	7:52 of the 3rd	12:08	12:08	+0.017 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.10
GSAx: +1.10

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 18
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.01
GSAx: -1.99

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:27Penalty
1st 13:27Penalty
1st 17:30Wyatt Aamodt (1–0)low · rebound · 46 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
1st 18:59Penalty
2nd 0:25Logan Morrison (1–1)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 2:11Penalty
2nd 6:46Lleyton Roed (1–2)low · 21 ft · beat Trent Miner
2nd 8:39Penalty
2nd 13:10Penalty
3rd 2:47Ian McKinnon (1–3)low · 43 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 7:52Penalty
3rd 7:52Penalty
3rd 7:52Ryan Winterton (1–4)low · 42 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 12:55Penalty
3rd 19:08Penalty