Abbotsford Canucks at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Abbotsford Canucks

2:4

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

ABBCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

46%54%

xG: 3.22.9
High danger: 47
Chances: 1013
Shots: 3329

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal29

10Scoring chances13

4High-danger chances7

3.23Expected goals2.89

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–9	1–5	1–3	0.7–0.9
2nd	7–11	3–4	0–1	0.6–1.0
3rd	18–9	6–4	3–3	1.9–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	2	15:44 of the 3rd	4:16	3:42	+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devin Cooley

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.23
GSAx: +1.23

Artūrs Šilovs

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.89
GSAx: -1.11

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 13:44Penalty
1st 16:54Penalty
1st 19:53Penalty
1st 19:53Penalty
1st 19:53Penalty
2nd 4:11Penalty
2nd 7:18Penalty
2nd 16:29Penalty
2nd 16:52Samuel Blais (1–0)5v4 · low · tip · 64 ft · beat Devin Cooley
2nd 18:19Rory Kerins (1–1)high · 19 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
3rd 1:04Penalty
3rd 5:20Penalty
3rd 5:24Penalty
3rd 6:45Adam Klapka (1–2)5v4 · high · wrist · 33 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
3rd 13:02Penalty
3rd 15:44Rory Kerins (1–3)high · wrist · 16 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs
3rd 16:22Christian Wolanin (2–3)low · wrist · 55 ft · beat Devin Cooley
3rd 19:37Sam Honzek (2–4)empty net · low · wrist · 38 ft · beat Artūrs Šilovs