Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

4:2

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

LVUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

27%73%

xG: 1.51.8
High danger: 14
Chances: 35
Shots: 2322

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal22

3Scoring chances5

1High-danger chances4

1.47Expected goals1.84

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–8	1–2	1–2	0.7–0.7
2nd	6–4	1–1	0–1	0.5–0.4
3rd	4–10	1–2	0–1	0.3–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Isaac Poulter

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.47
GSAx: -2.53

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 20
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.84
GSAx: -0.16

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:27Adam Beckman (0–1)low · 43 ft · beat Cal Petersen
1st 8:26Penalty
1st 10:46Penalty
1st 16:25Penalty
1st 18:13Penalty
2nd 0:16Penalty
2nd 3:23Rodrigo Abols (1–1)low · 33 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
2nd 3:49Alexis Gendron (2–1)low · 33 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
2nd 7:00Ryan Schmelzer (2–2)low · 70 ft · beat Cal Petersen
2nd 8:10Penalty
2nd 13:08Penalty
3rd 5:52Penalty
3rd 8:48J.R. Avon (3–2)medium · 10 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
3rd 19:46Adam Ginning (4–2)empty net · low · 141 ft · beat Isaac Poulter