Rochester Americans at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Rochester Americans

5:2

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

ROCSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

52%48%

xG: 3.43.8
High danger: 65
Chances: 1214
Shots: 3235

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal35

12Scoring chances14

6High-danger chances5

3.41Expected goals3.85

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–16	3–6	1–3	1.5–2.1
2nd	13–7	5–3	3–1	1.3–0.6
3rd	4–12	4–5	2–1	0.7–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 33
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.84
GSAx: +1.84

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 17
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.11
GSAx: -0.89

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 10
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.30
GSAx: -0.70

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:02Riley Fiddler-Schultz (1–0)low · 38 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 6:13Brendan Warren (2–0)grade A · 13 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 8:58Drew Callin (2–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 18:02Penalty
2nd 1:17Penalty
2nd 3:55Penalty
2nd 6:15Penalty
2nd 6:28Brett Murray (3–1)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 7:36Riley Fiddler-Schultz (4–1)low · 60 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 10:52Penalty
3rd 13:24Penalty
3rd 15:01Tanner Dickinson (4–2)5v4 · high · 4 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 16:06Lukáš Rousek (5–2)empty net · high · 17 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 18:21Penalty
3rd 18:21Penalty