AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 3

Tucson Roadrunners at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Tucson Roadrunners
6:3
Final
Texas Stars

The sheet

TUCTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
34%66%
xG
2.42.9
High danger
37
Chances
910
Shots
3228

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TEX above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal28
9Scoring chances10
3High-danger chances7
2.41Expected goals2.92

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–122–41–40.7–1.3
2nd10–93–41–20.7–1.0
3rd13–74–21–11.0–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX117:30 of the 3rd2:302:30+0.051 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Hellberg
Shots faced
32
Saves
26
Allowed
6
xGA
2.41
GSAx
-3.59
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
28
Saves
25
Allowed
3
xGA
2.92
GSAx
-0.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:19Christian Kyrou (0–1)low · 57 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 3:37Penalty
  • 1st 6:55Kailer Yamamoto (1–1)low · 42 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 1st 11:54Penalty
  • 1st 18:21Penalty
  • 1st 18:21Penalty
  • 1st 18:21Penalty
  • 1st 19:47Curtis McKenzie (1–2)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 4:50Penalty
  • 2nd 10:55Penalty
  • 2nd 15:04Curtis Douglas (2–2)medium · 27 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 2nd 19:44Cameron Hebig (3–2)low · 31 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 1:33Cameron Hughes (3–3)low · 28 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 9:48Penalty
  • 3rd 17:30Cameron Hebig (4–3)medium · 8 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 18:49Penalty
  • 3rd 18:49Penalty
  • 3rd 18:49Penalty
  • 3rd 18:49Penalty
  • 3rd 18:49Aku Räty (5–3)empty net · low · 39 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
  • 3rd 19:59Cameron Hebig (6–3)empty net · medium · 28 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg