Manitoba Moose at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Manitoba Moose

4:5

Final / OT

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

MBCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

45%55%

xG: 3.94.4
High danger: 1110
Chances: 1314
Shots: 2831

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal31

13Scoring chances14

11High-danger chances10

3.89Expected goals4.43

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–9	5–5	5–3	1.3–1.4
2nd	9–11	5–4	4–4	1.6–1.6
3rd	9–8	3–5	2–3	0.9–1.2
OT	1–3	0–0	0–0	0.1–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	6:27	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Waltteri Ignatjew

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.89
GSAx: -0.11

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 20
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.03
GSAx: +1.03

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 9
Saves: 6
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.40
GSAx: -1.60

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:15Penalty
1st 8:01William Strömgren (0–1)low · wrist · 38 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
1st 11:35Martin Frk (0–2)grade A · wrist · rebound · 6 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
1st 12:37Axel Jonsson-Fjällby (1–2)low · wrist · 45 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
1st 15:53Penalty
1st 18:22Penalty
1st 19:49Dryden Hunt (1–3)5v4 · medium · wrist · 40 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
2nd 3:37Parker Ford (2–3)low · wrist · 34 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
2nd 7:53David Silye (2–4)low · 27 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 9:56Penalty
2nd 13:13Penalty
2nd 13:34Penalty
2nd 15:34Penalty
3rd 2:43Penalty
3rd 6:02Penalty
3rd 6:46Penalty
3rd 10:05Penalty
3rd 17:20Chaz Lucius (3–4)low · wrist · 29 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
3rd 18:36Mason Shaw (4–4)medium · wrist · 9 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
OT 1:15Martin Frk (4–5)low · wrist · 21 ft · beat Thomas Milic