AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 3

Henderson Silver Knights at Bakersfield Condors

Mechanics Bank Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Henderson Silver Knights
4:5
Final / OT
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

HSKBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
49%51%
xG
4.73.9
High danger
67
Chances
1716
Shots
3437

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal37
17Scoring chances16
6High-danger chances7
4.71Expected goals3.94

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–67–33–12.1–0.8
2nd8–124–51–20.8–1.1
3rd7–174–61–21.0–1.7
OT8–22–21–20.8–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK116:56 of the 3rd3:042:24+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Akira Schmid
Shots faced
37
Saves
32
Allowed
5
xGA
3.94
GSAx
-1.06
Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
34
Saves
30
Allowed
4
xGA
4.71
GSAx
+0.71

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:03Penalty
  • 1st 6:30Seth Griffith (0–1)high · 9 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 1st 7:36Cal Burke (1–1)grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 1st 10:08Penalty
  • 1st 16:49Noah Philp (1–2)medium · 18 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 1st 17:18Penalty
  • 1st 18:59Grigori Denisenko (2–2)5v4 · medium · 42 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 4:33Penalty
  • 2nd 9:10Penalty
  • 2nd 9:10Penalty
  • 2nd 9:55Matthew Savoie (2–3)medium · 19 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • 2nd 17:27Penalty
  • 2nd 18:41Braeden Bowman (3–3)5v4 · medium · 24 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 14:04Riley McKay (4–3)grade A · 14 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 19:20James Hamblin (4–4)grade A · 8 ft · beat Akira Schmid
  • OT 1:19Penalty
  • OT 4:44Lane Pederson (4–5)high · 37 ft · beat Akira Schmid