San Diego Gulls at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

San Diego Gulls

1:4

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

SDONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

15%85%

xG: 1.62.9
High danger: 15
Chances: 413
Shots: 2333

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal33

4Scoring chances13

1High-danger chances5

1.60Expected goals2.87

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–16	2–6	0–1	0.5–1.2
2nd	10–6	1–3	1–2	0.6–0.6
3rd	6–11	1–4	0–2	0.5–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.87
GSAx: -1.13

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 22
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.60
GSAx: +0.60

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

2nd 3:42Jeff Malott (0–1)high · 20 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
2nd 4:31Penalty
2nd 13:44Penalty
2nd 16:38Jan Myšák (1–1)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 0:45Penalty
3rd 2:14Jack Studnicka (1–2)5v4 · medium · 23 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 11:28Samuel Fagemo (1–3)low · 22 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 12:23Francesco Pinelli (1–4)high · 22 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 14:52Penalty
3rd 14:52Penalty
3rd 18:51Penalty
3rd 18:51Penalty