Rockford IceHogs at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Rockford IceHogs

0:4

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

RFDCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

21%79%

xG: 1.32.4
High danger: 25
Chances: 610
Shots: 2029

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal29

6Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances5

1.31Expected goals2.44

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–15	3–4	1–2	0.5–1.2
2nd	4–11	0–6	0–3	0.1–1.2
3rd	12–3	3–0	1–0	0.7–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.44
GSAx: -1.56

Spencer Martin

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 20
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.31
GSAx: +1.31

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:19Penalty
1st 8:52Penalty
1st 9:05Penalty
1st 13:56Scott Morrow (0–1)low · 38 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 14:55Bradly Nadeau (0–2)low · 15 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 6:17Scott Morrow (0–3)medium · 22 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 16:47Penalty
3rd 10:55Penalty
3rd 19:30Scott Morrow (0–4)empty net · low · 183 ft · beat Drew Commesso