Tucson Roadrunners at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Tucson Roadrunners

0:5

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

TUCTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

20%80%

xG: 1.83.2
High danger: 13
Chances: 814
Shots: 2429

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal29

8Scoring chances14

1High-danger chances3

1.80Expected goals3.23

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–10	2–3	0–1	0.6–0.9
2nd	8–15	5–10	1–2	0.9–1.9
3rd	4–4	1–1	0–0	0.3–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 24
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.23
GSAx: -1.77

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 24
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.80
GSAx: +1.80

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 15:22Curtis McKenzie (0–1)high · backhand · 6 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 17:09Kyle McDonald (0–2)medium · 24 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 19:53Penalty
1st 19:53Penalty
2nd 1:08Penalty
2nd 2:56Emilio Pettersen (0–3)5v4 · high · rebound · 10 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 6:22Penalty
2nd 7:59Penalty
2nd 8:32Matěj Blümel (0–4)5v4 · medium · wrist · 38 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 9:41Penalty
2nd 11:51Penalty
3rd 3:28Penalty
3rd 4:39Penalty
3rd 5:02Gavin White (0–5)5v4 · low · wrist · 54 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 9:25Penalty
3rd 13:03Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty