AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 4

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds
4:3
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

CVONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
20%80%
xG
2.04.1
High danger
36
Chances
718
Shots
2335

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal35
7Scoring chances18
3High-danger chances6
2.04Expected goals4.14

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–60–20–10.7–0.4
2nd6–184–91–30.8–2.1
3rd6–113–72–20.5–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ONT−3−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ONT31:22 of the 3rd18:386:24+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko
Shots faced
35
Saves
32
Allowed
3
xGA
4.14
GSAx
+1.14
Erik Portillo
Shots faced
23
Saves
19
Allowed
4
xGA
2.04
GSAx
-1.96

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 11:01Jani Nyman (1–0)low · 37 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 2nd 1:10Penalty
  • 2nd 1:17Lleyton Roed (2–0)5v4 · medium · 44 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 2nd 2:24Penalty
  • 2nd 4:30Jack Studnicka (2–1)medium · 6 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 2nd 6:37Penalty
  • 2nd 16:14Ryan Winterton (3–1)medium · 25 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 3rd 1:22Max McCormick (4–1)high · 9 ft · beat Erik Portillo
  • 3rd 1:56Penalty
  • 3rd 3:57Penalty
  • 3rd 4:15Samuel Fagemo (4–2)5v4 · medium · 32 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 12:26Penalty
  • 3rd 12:26Penalty
  • 3rd 12:36Jeff Malott (4–3)grade A · 16 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 15:22Penalty
  • 3rd 15:22Penalty
  • 3rd 15:22Penalty
  • 3rd 15:22Penalty