Colorado Eagles at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Colorado Eagles

4:2

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

COLSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

63%37%

xG: 4.73.5
High danger: 87
Chances: 1513
Shots: 3840

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal40

15Scoring chances13

8High-danger chances7

4.69Expected goals3.52

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–17	2–2	1–0	0.9–1.1
2nd	12–13	3–5	1–4	1.1–1.2
3rd	20–10	10–6	6–3	2.7–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Adam Scheel

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 38
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.52
GSAx: +1.52

Aaron Dell

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 34
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.68
GSAx: +1.68

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:32Penalty
1st 17:26Lucas Vanroboys (0–1)low · 13 ft · beat Adam Scheel
1st 19:57Penalty
2nd 2:36Penalty
2nd 7:43Penalty
2nd 14:03Penalty
2nd 14:21Andrew Poturalski (0–2)5v4 · medium · 24 ft · beat Adam Scheel
2nd 17:18Jake Wise (1–2)low · 50 ft · beat Aaron Dell
2nd 19:23Penalty
3rd 2:45Penalty
3rd 2:45Penalty
3rd 3:21Penalty
3rd 4:57T.J. Tynan (2–2)4v5 · high · 7 ft · beat Aaron Dell
3rd 6:47Penalty
3rd 8:35Jacob MacDonald (3–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Aaron Dell
3rd 11:22Penalty
3rd 14:19Penalty
3rd 17:12Penalty
3rd 19:13Penalty
3rd 19:59Jake Wise (4–2)empty net · low · 56 ft