Hartford Wolf Pack at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Hartford Wolf Pack

5:1

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

HFDBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

71%29%

xG: 3.52.7
High danger: 54
Chances: 169
Shots: 3330

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal30

16Scoring chances9

5High-danger chances4

3.54Expected goals2.71

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–10	6–0	2–0	1.1–0.5
2nd	14–15	6–6	1–4	1.4–1.7
3rd	8–5	4–3	2–0	1.0–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 28
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.54
GSAx: -1.46

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.71
GSAx: +1.71

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:58Penalty
1st 10:20Penalty
1st 18:42Penalty
1st 18:42Penalty
1st 19:34Benoit-Olivier Groulx (1–0)high · rebound · 26 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 1:21Penalty
2nd 3:00Penalty
2nd 3:27Benoit-Olivier Groulx (2–0)5v4 · medium · 24 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 4:32Adam Sýkora (3–0)medium · 31 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 7:37Penalty
2nd 9:52Anton Blidh (4–0)medium · 13 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 10:39Penalty
2nd 10:49Brian Pinho (4–1)5v4 · high · rebound · 15 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 18:40Nathan Sucese (5–1)low · rebound · 37 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 1:09Penalty
3rd 4:20Penalty
3rd 4:20Penalty
3rd 16:57Penalty