AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, January 5

Providence Bruins at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Providence Bruins
1:5
Final
Hershey Bears

The sheet

PROHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
34%66%
xG
2.34.1
High danger
44
Chances
1115
Shots
1933

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HER above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal33
11Scoring chances15
4High-danger chances4
2.33Expected goals4.05

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–84–31–00.8–0.7
2nd7–153–92–30.8–2.2
3rd6–104–31–10.8–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

PRO−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
PRO30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Brandon Bussi
Shots faced
33
Saves
28
Allowed
5
xGA
4.05
GSAx
-0.95
Clay Stevenson
Shots faced
19
Saves
18
Allowed
1
xGA
2.33
GSAx
+1.33

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:20Max Jones (1–0)medium · 23 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 1st 3:04Penalty
  • 1st 3:59Penalty
  • 1st 14:45Mike Sgarbossa (1–1)medium · 18 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 1st 19:30Penalty
  • 2nd 6:02Matt Strome (1–2)medium · 29 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 2nd 6:32Grant Cruikshank (1–3)medium · 26 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 2nd 8:08Penalty
  • 2nd 10:11Penalty
  • 2nd 13:04Penalty
  • 2nd 15:16Spencer Smallman (1–4)grade A · rebound · 3 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 2nd 19:28Penalty
  • 3rd 0:43Penalty
  • 3rd 0:43Penalty
  • 3rd 8:30Penalty
  • 3rd 10:16Spencer Smallman (1–5)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 5 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
  • 3rd 17:04Penalty