Cleveland Monsters at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Cleveland Monsters

4:2

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

CLETORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

43%57%

xG: 2.52.9
High danger: 44
Chances: 811
Shots: 2434

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal34

8Scoring chances11

4High-danger chances4

2.47Expected goals2.86

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–13	1–4	0–2	0.3–1.3
2nd	11–7	2–3	1–1	1.0–0.5
3rd	10–14	5–4	3–1	1.3–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jet Greaves

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 32
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.86
GSAx: +0.86

Matt Murray

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 20
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.47
GSAx: -1.53

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:56Penalty
1st 12:18Penalty
1st 14:04Cédric Paré (0–1)4v5 · grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Jet Greaves
2nd 0:31Penalty
2nd 8:29Penalty
2nd 9:30Gavin Brindley (1–1)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Matt Murray
3rd 1:55Penalty
3rd 5:39Penalty
3rd 6:31Alex Steeves (1–2)5v4 · medium · 44 ft · beat Jet Greaves
3rd 7:50Cameron Butler (2–2)low · 50 ft · beat Matt Murray
3rd 14:28Penalty
3rd 14:34Penalty
3rd 15:18Rocco Grimaldi (3–2)grade A · 10 ft · beat Matt Murray
3rd 19:16Dylan Gambrell (4–2)empty net · low · 118 ft · beat Matt Murray