Bakersfield Condors at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Bakersfield Condors

1:4

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

BAKHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

76%24%

xG: 3.81.9
High danger: 63
Chances: 126
Shots: 3720

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal20

12Scoring chances6

6High-danger chances3

3.84Expected goals1.91

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–5	7–1	3–1	1.9–0.7
2nd	8–8	2–2	1–1	0.7–0.5
3rd	17–7	3–3	2–1	1.3–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 36
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.84
GSAx: +2.84

Olivier Rodrigue

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 16
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.90
GSAx: -2.10

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:00Braeden Bowman (0–1)grade A · wrist · rebound · 14 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
1st 8:55Penalty
1st 16:48Penalty
2nd 5:18Gage Quinney (0–2)high · tip · 12 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
2nd 7:28Penalty
2nd 15:11James Hamblin (1–2)medium · wrist · 13 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 6:28Penalty
3rd 10:05Kai Uchacz (1–3)medium · tip · 14 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
3rd 14:35Penalty
3rd 14:53Penalty
3rd 18:02Dysin Mayo (1–4)empty net · low · 49 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue