Manitoba Moose at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Manitoba Moose

3:2

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

MBCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

62%38%

xG: 3.62.8
High danger: 96
Chances: 138
Shots: 2325

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal25

13Scoring chances8

9High-danger chances6

3.56Expected goals2.81

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–5	3–0	2–0	0.7–0.3
2nd	8–9	5–4	5–3	1.3–1.1
3rd	10–11	5–4	2–3	1.6–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	1	18:30 of the 3rd	1:30	1:30	+0.035 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.80
GSAx: +0.80

Devin Cooley

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 20
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.56
GSAx: +0.56

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:36Penalty
1st 3:51Parker Ford (1–0)4v5 · high · snap · 20 ft · beat Devin Cooley
1st 12:52Penalty
2nd 2:10Lucas Ciona (1–1)high · snap · 11 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 3:21Penalty
2nd 5:59Penalty
2nd 12:23Kevin Conley (2–1)low · wrist · 27 ft · beat Devin Cooley
2nd 14:40Penalty
2nd 17:22Penalty
2nd 19:02Penalty
3rd 15:03Sam Morton (2–2)grade A · backhand · rebound · 9 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 18:30Nikita Chibrikov (3–2)low · wrist · 33 ft · beat Devin Cooley