AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, January 7

Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Lehigh Valley Phantoms
5:4
Final
Hershey Bears

The sheet

LVHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
37%63%
xG
2.62.8
High danger
35
Chances
1013
Shots
2525

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HER above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal25
10Scoring chances13
3High-danger chances5
2.57Expected goals2.83

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st12–105–41–11.2–0.9
2nd8–75–52–21.1–1.0
3rd5–80–40–20.2–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HER−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HER116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cal Petersen
Shots faced
25
Saves
21
Allowed
4
xGA
2.83
GSAx
-1.17
Hunter Shepard
Shots faced
20
Saves
15
Allowed
5
xGA
2.33
GSAx
-2.67
Clay Stevenson
Shots faced
5
Saves
5
Allowed
0
xGA
0.24
GSAx
+0.24

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:44Hunter McDonald (1–0)low · 40 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 1st 4:27Penalty
  • 1st 5:32Grant Cruikshank (1–1)4v5 · low · 43 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 1st 12:47Elliot Desnoyers (2–1)grade A · rebound · 31 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 1st 13:26Ethan Samson (3–1)low · 38 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 1st 17:14Penalty
  • 2nd 1:05Emil Andrae (4–1)medium · 18 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 2nd 3:34Bogdan Trineyev (4–2)low · 48 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 2nd 4:39Penalty
  • 2nd 7:49Penalty
  • 2nd 14:25Penalty
  • 2nd 16:58Jacob Gaucher (5–2)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
  • 2nd 19:42Mike Sgarbossa (5–3)medium · 18 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 3rd 1:06Mike Sgarbossa (5–4)grade A · rebound · 26 ft · beat Cal Petersen
  • 3rd 1:42Penalty
  • 3rd 3:31Penalty
  • 3rd 19:39Penalty