AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, January 8

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins
6:3
Final
Toronto Marlies

The sheet

WBSTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
28%72%
xG
1.82.8
High danger
11
Chances
49
Shots
2339

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TOR above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal39
4Scoring chances9
1High-danger chances1
1.82Expected goals2.84

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–120–20–00.4–0.7
2nd7–152–40–10.6–1.3
3rd9–122–31–00.9–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TOR−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TOR212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Filip Larsson
Shots faced
39
Saves
36
Allowed
3
xGA
2.84
GSAx
-0.16
Matt Murray
Shots faced
16
Saves
13
Allowed
3
xGA
1.46
GSAx
-1.54
Artur Akhtyamov
Shots faced
7
Saves
4
Allowed
3
xGA
0.36
GSAx
-2.64

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:48Ville Koivunen (1–0)low · 49 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 1st 4:47Nikita Grebenkin (1–1)low · 45 ft · beat Filip Larsson
  • 1st 12:15Jacob Quillan (1–2)low · 16 ft · beat Filip Larsson
  • 1st 13:19Ville Koivunen (2–2)low · 43 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 1st 13:57Penalty
  • 1st 15:45Filip Král (3–2)5v4 · low · 56 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 1st 18:27Penalty
  • 2nd 7:45Penalty
  • 2nd 10:40Penalty
  • 2nd 15:00Fraser Minten (3–3)medium · 24 ft · beat Filip Larsson
  • 2nd 15:48Penalty
  • 2nd 18:23Penalty
  • 3rd 1:13Penalty
  • 3rd 6:43Penalty
  • 3rd 8:23Filip Král (4–3)5v4 · low · 57 ft · beat Matt Murray
  • 3rd 9:32Emil Bemström (5–3)high · 3 ft · beat Matt Murray
  • 3rd 10:59Penalty
  • 3rd 18:45Ville Koivunen (6–3)empty net · low · 29 ft · beat Matt Murray