Syracuse Crunch at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Syracuse Crunch

1:5

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

SYRUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

16%84%

xG: 2.03.5
High danger: 08
Chances: 812
Shots: 2124

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal24

8Scoring chances12

0High-danger chances8

2.05Expected goals3.50

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–9	2–6	0–4	0.5–1.6
2nd	5–8	3–3	0–2	0.6–0.8
3rd	11–7	3–3	0–2	1.0–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	3	6:48 of the 3rd	13:12	13:12	+0.019 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 19
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.50
GSAx: -1.50

Isaac Poulter

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 20
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.05
GSAx: +1.05

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:31Mike Hardman (0–1)grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 2:10Penalty
1st 2:10Penalty
1st 4:17Shane Bowers (0–2)grade A · 10 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 11:13Penalty
1st 13:19Logan Brown (1–2)medium · 5 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
1st 14:21Penalty
2nd 3:35Penalty
2nd 6:28Penalty
2nd 13:06Penalty
2nd 14:08Penalty
2nd 19:49Penalty
3rd 2:08Penalty
3rd 4:43Jack Malone (1–3)low · 45 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 6:19Penalty
3rd 6:48Šimon Nemec (1–4)5v4 · low · 60 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 17:46Joe Gambardella (1–5)low · 25 ft · beat Matt Tomkins