Texas Stars at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Texas Stars

4:1

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

TEXRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

84%16%

xG: 2.21.7
High danger: 20
Chances: 94
Shots: 2525

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal25

9Scoring chances4

2High-danger chances0

2.23Expected goals1.70

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–11	1–3	1–0	0.7–0.9
2nd	6–6	2–0	0–0	0.5–0.3
3rd	8–8	6–1	1–0	1.1–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.23
GSAx: -1.77

Magnus Hellberg

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.70
GSAx: +0.70

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:15Matěj Blümel (1–0)low · backhand · 27 ft · beat Drew Commesso
1st 3:19Penalty
1st 12:46Jack Becker (2–0)high · rebound · 14 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 6:29Chase Wheatcroft (3–0)medium · 11 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 10:34Penalty
2nd 10:55Matěj Blümel (4–0)5v4 · low · 45 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 16:38Penalty
3rd 0:29Penalty
3rd 1:11Penalty
3rd 4:44Penalty
3rd 5:15Penalty
3rd 7:31Cole Guttman (4–1)low · 44 ft · beat Magnus Hellberg
3rd 10:09Penalty
3rd 10:16Penalty
3rd 16:50Penalty
3rd 18:44Penalty