Tucson Roadrunners at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Tucson Roadrunners

4:1

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

TUCCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

75%25%

xG: 3.32.8
High danger: 92
Chances: 1511
Shots: 2830

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal30

15Scoring chances11

9High-danger chances2

3.26Expected goals2.80

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–13	5–3	4–1	1.1–1.0
2nd	11–6	7–2	3–0	1.4–0.5
3rd	7–11	3–6	2–1	0.7–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Ingram

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.80
GSAx: +1.80

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.26
GSAx: -0.74

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:05Penalty
1st 4:52Penalty
1st 5:03Andrew Agozzino (1–0)5v4 · high · 33 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
1st 8:19Josh Doan (2–0)low · 38 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
1st 14:17Penalty
1st 14:21Penalty
1st 15:06Jani Nyman (2–1)5v4 · high · 36 ft · beat Connor Ingram
1st 18:29Travis Barron (3–1)high · 12 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
2nd 2:47Penalty
2nd 19:22Penalty
3rd 8:48Penalty
3rd 13:59Penalty
3rd 14:19Penalty
3rd 14:19Penalty
3rd 18:11Egor Sokolov (4–1)empty net · low · 80 ft · beat Aleš Stezka