Hershey Bears at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Hershey Bears

4:3

Final / OT

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

HERCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

60%40%

xG: 2.51.8
High danger: 23
Chances: 94
Shots: 2922

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal22

9Scoring chances4

2High-danger chances3

2.47Expected goals1.76

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–8	1–1	0–1	0.3–0.7
2nd	13–8	4–2	0–1	1.1–0.7
3rd	10–4	2–1	1–1	0.8–0.4
OT	2–2	2–0	1–0	0.3–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	7:24	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Chris Driedger

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.47
GSAx: -1.53

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 19
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.76
GSAx: -1.24

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:04Penalty
1st 8:07Justin Sourdif (0–1)4v5 · high · 14 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 11:03Penalty
1st 11:29Trevor Carrick (0–2)5v4 · low · 48 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 6:12Penalty
2nd 8:29Will Lockwood (0–3)high · 15 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 13:28Penalty
2nd 17:23Penalty
3rd 7:24Aaron Ness (1–3)low · 49 ft · beat Chris Driedger
3rd 8:30Pierrick Dubé (2–3)low · 61 ft · beat Chris Driedger
3rd 9:55Penalty
3rd 15:26Brennan Saulnier (3–3)low · 28 ft · beat Chris Driedger
OT 2:21Alex Limoges (4–3)high · 19 ft · beat Chris Driedger