Manitoba Moose at Grand Rapids Griffins

Van Andel Arena · Grand Rapids, MI

Manitoba Moose

3:2

Final

Grand Rapids Griffins

The sheet

MBGRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

76%24%

xG: 3.11.9
High danger: 82
Chances: 117
Shots: 2927

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

GR above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% GR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal27

11Scoring chances7

8High-danger chances2

3.07Expected goals1.87

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–12	5–4	3–1	1.3–0.8
2nd	11–9	5–1	4–1	1.2–0.7
3rd	6–6	1–2	1–0	0.6–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
GR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.07
GSAx: +0.07

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.87
GSAx: -0.13

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:44Nikita Chibrikov (1–0)low · 15 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
1st 8:09Penalty
1st 11:55Penalty
1st 17:34Gabriel Seger (1–1)high · 6 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
2nd 3:07Penalty
2nd 3:07Penalty
2nd 10:37Penalty
2nd 13:17Penalty
2nd 14:31C.J. Suess (2–1)5v4 · high · 17 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 16:47Elmer Söderblom (2–2)low · 29 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
2nd 18:33Penalty
3rd 6:16Penalty
3rd 8:10Ben King (3–2)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 13:39Penalty
3rd 13:39Penalty
3rd 17:16Penalty