Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

6:1

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

WBSBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

56%44%

xG: 3.33.9
High danger: 75
Chances: 1413
Shots: 2840

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineWBS belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal40

14Scoring chances13

7High-danger chances5

3.26Expected goals3.93

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–13	5–2	2–1	1.1–1.0
2nd	10–16	5–7	3–3	1.2–1.8
3rd	8–11	4–4	2–1	0.9–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Joel Blomqvist

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 39
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.93
GSAx: +2.93

Michael Simpson

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 14
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.02
GSAx: +0.02

Mads Søgaard

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 8
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.24
GSAx: -2.76

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:55Avery Hayes (1–0)low · 34 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
1st 6:03Sam Poulin (2–0)medium · 10 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
1st 6:33Penalty
1st 7:50Valtteri Puustinen (3–0)5v4 · high · 19 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 2:03Boris Katchouk (4–0)low · 36 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 3:34Keean Washkurak (4–1)high · 9 ft · beat Joel Blomqvist
2nd 4:42Penalty
2nd 8:11Penalty
2nd 8:11Penalty
2nd 8:19Penalty
2nd 8:19Penalty
2nd 9:07Penalty
2nd 9:45Penalty
2nd 18:37Bokondji Imama (5–1)high · 12 ft · beat Michael Simpson
3rd 6:31Penalty
3rd 6:31Penalty
3rd 6:38Penalty
3rd 7:36Sam Poulin (6–1)4v5 · high · 9 ft · beat Michael Simpson
3rd 12:40Penalty