Bridgeport Islanders at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Bridgeport Islanders

1:4

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

BRIPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

21%79%

xG: 3.14.1
High danger: 35
Chances: 921
Shots: 3537

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal37

9Scoring chances21

3High-danger chances5

3.08Expected goals4.08

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–8	3–3	1–1	1.1–0.7
2nd	13–13	2–7	1–2	0.9–1.5
3rd	11–16	4–11	1–2	1.0–1.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	3	7:10 of the 3rd	12:50	12:50	+0.018 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Henrik Tikkanen

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 33
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.08
GSAx: +0.08

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 34
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.08
GSAx: +2.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:01Georgii Merkulov (0–1)low · 57 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
1st 6:41Penalty
1st 11:27Penalty
1st 17:08Penalty
2nd 1:27Riley Tufte (0–2)medium · 14 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
2nd 4:41Penalty
2nd 10:11Penalty
2nd 10:11Penalty
2nd 11:50Penalty
2nd 12:11Chris Terry (1–2)5v4 · low · 48 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
2nd 18:45Penalty
2nd 19:38Penalty
3rd 3:46Vinni Lettieri (1–3)low · 40 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
3rd 4:38Penalty
3rd 7:10Vinni Lettieri (1–4)medium · 15 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
3rd 13:07Penalty
3rd 18:31Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty