Calgary Wranglers at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Calgary Wranglers

2:5

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

CGYCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

52%48%

xG: 2.82.5
High danger: 56
Chances: 1210
Shots: 2723

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal23

12Scoring chances10

5High-danger chances6

2.84Expected goals2.46

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–7	5–2	2–0	0.9–0.5
2nd	10–9	4–6	2–4	1.0–1.4
3rd	9–7	3–2	1–2	0.9–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CGY	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	8:31	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Adam Scheel

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.84
GSAx: +0.84

Devin Cooley

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 12
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.87
GSAx: -2.13

Waltteri Ignatjew

Shots faced: 7
Saves: 6
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.59
GSAx: -0.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:12Penalty
1st 3:49Dryden Hunt (1–0)4v5 · high · 14 ft · beat Adam Scheel
1st 5:09Matthew Phillips (1–1)5v4 · medium · 25 ft · beat Devin Cooley
1st 8:12Mark Senden (1–2)low · 41 ft · beat Devin Cooley
1st 11:03Penalty
1st 12:52Penalty
1st 19:13Penalty
2nd 2:42Jayson Megna (1–3)high · 19 ft · beat Devin Cooley
2nd 5:20Jason Polin (1–4)grade A · rebound · 21 ft · beat Devin Cooley
2nd 12:00Penalty
2nd 14:46Penalty
3rd 0:29Penalty
3rd 0:40Clark Bishop (2–4)4v5 · grade A · 19 ft · beat Adam Scheel
3rd 8:04Penalty
3rd 13:11Penalty
3rd 18:20Devante Stephens (2–5)empty net · low · 138 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew