Iowa Wild at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Iowa Wild

5:0

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

IAONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

48%52%

xG: 2.42.5
High danger: 33
Chances: 97
Shots: 2634

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal34

9Scoring chances7

3High-danger chances3

2.42Expected goals2.51

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–11	6–1	2–0	1.7–0.7
2nd	6–13	1–3	0–1	0.3–1.0
3rd	5–10	2–3	1–2	0.4–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 34
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.51
GSAx: +2.51

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 12
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.72
GSAx: -1.28

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 11
Saves: 9
Allowed: 2
xGA: 0.70
GSAx: -1.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:48Caedan Bankier (1–0)medium · 50 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 10:28Graeme Clarke (2–0)medium · 6 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 19:14Graeme Clarke (3–0)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 12:27Penalty
2nd 19:00Carson Lambos (4–0)low · 32 ft · beat Erik Portillo
3rd 7:42Adam Raška (5–0)high · 19 ft · beat Erik Portillo