Tucson Roadrunners at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Tucson Roadrunners

2:3

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

TUCSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

25%75%

xG: 2.14.4
High danger: 45
Chances: 819
Shots: 2445

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal45

8Scoring chances19

4High-danger chances5

2.10Expected goals4.43

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–15	1–7	1–2	0.5–1.4
2nd	8–24	2–10	0–2	0.5–2.5
3rd	10–6	5–2	3–1	1.2–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 45
Saves: 42
Allowed: 3
xGA: 4.43
GSAx: +1.43

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.10
GSAx: +0.10

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:51Tyson Hinds (0–1)medium · 19 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 5:34Egor Sokolov (1–1)high · rebound · 24 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
1st 9:34Ryan Carpenter (1–2)medium · 8 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
2nd 8:52Penalty
3rd 1:48Penalty
3rd 17:14Sasha Pastujov (1–3)low · 13 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 19:31Max Szuber (2–3)medium · rebound · 32 ft · beat Oscar Dansk