Henderson Silver Knights at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Henderson Silver Knights

1:4

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

HSKABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

32%68%

xG: 2.02.8
High danger: 12
Chances: 78
Shots: 3031

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal31

7Scoring chances8

1High-danger chances2

2.04Expected goals2.75

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–8	2–4	0–2	0.7–1.2
2nd	9–10	3–3	0–0	0.6–0.7
3rd	10–13	2–1	1–0	0.7–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Akira Schmid

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.75
GSAx: -1.25

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.04
GSAx: +1.04

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:12Penalty
1st 11:50Linus Karlsson (0–1)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 5:00Penalty
2nd 6:38Ty Mueller (0–2)5v4 · medium · 10 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 8:58Linus Karlsson (0–3)low · 29 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 10:11Penalty
2nd 10:11Penalty
2nd 15:34Ty Mueller (0–4)medium · 23 ft · beat Akira Schmid
2nd 16:57Grigori Denisenko (1–4)medium · 17 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 7:23Penalty
3rd 7:23Penalty
3rd 7:23Penalty
3rd 16:06Penalty
3rd 16:06Penalty
3rd 16:06Penalty
3rd 16:06Penalty