Bakersfield Condors at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Bakersfield Condors

2:5

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

BAKSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

22%78%

xG: 2.34.4
High danger: 47
Chances: 713
Shots: 2545

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal45

7Scoring chances13

4High-danger chances7

2.32Expected goals4.42

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–15	1–2	1–2	0.4–1.3
2nd	12–16	3–6	1–2	1.2–1.8
3rd	8–14	3–5	2–3	0.7–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Collin Delia

Shots faced: 45
Saves: 40
Allowed: 5
xGA: 4.42
GSAx: -0.58

Georgii Romanov

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.32
GSAx: +0.32

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:36Phil Kemp (1–0)low · 59 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
1st 3:25Tristen Robins (1–1)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Collin Delia
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 2:17Andrew Poturalski (1–2)medium · 18 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 5:34Penalty
2nd 5:34Penalty
2nd 5:34Penalty
2nd 6:09Andrew Poturalski (1–3)5v4 · high · 29 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 9:54Penalty
2nd 9:54Penalty
2nd 14:36Donavan Houle (1–4)medium · 29 ft · beat Collin Delia
2nd 16:15Penalty
2nd 16:15Penalty
2nd 18:09Noah Philp (2–4)medium · 13 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
3rd 10:46Penalty
3rd 10:46Penalty
3rd 13:36Penalty
3rd 14:42Penalty
3rd 15:43Donavan Houle (2–5)empty net · high · 4 ft · beat Collin Delia