Providence Bruins at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Providence Bruins

4:6

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

PROSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

56%44%

xG: 2.92.4
High danger: 33
Chances: 1411
Shots: 2826

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal26

14Scoring chances11

3High-danger chances3

2.87Expected goals2.41

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–10	4–3	0–1	0.7–0.9
2nd	12–9	7–4	2–2	1.4–0.9
3rd	11–7	3–4	1–0	0.8–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	2	15:29 of the 3rd	4:31	4:31	+0.021 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Colten Ellis

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.86
GSAx: -1.14

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 16
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.98
GSAx: -3.02

Brandon Bussi

Shots faced: 5
Saves: 4
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.43
GSAx: -0.57

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:34Dylan Peterson (0–1)low · 32 ft · beat Brandon Bussi
1st 8:04Corey Schueneman (0–2)low · 45 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
1st 15:59Penalty
2nd 2:54Fabian Lysell (1–2)high · 12 ft · beat Colten Ellis
2nd 5:46Penalty
2nd 10:50Brett Harrison (2–2)medium · 16 ft · beat Colten Ellis
2nd 17:35Penalty
2nd 19:37Michael Buchinger (2–3)low · 54 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 3:53Penalty
3rd 3:59Dalibor Dvorský (2–4)5v4 · medium · 54 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 9:13Penalty
3rd 9:13Penalty
3rd 9:24Patrick Brown (3–4)5v4 · high · 24 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 15:29Mackenzie MacEachern (3–5)medium · 15 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 17:48Riley Duran (4–5)medium · 23 ft · beat Colten Ellis
3rd 19:33Hunter Skinner (4–6)empty net · low · 36 ft · beat Michael DiPietro