Tucson Roadrunners at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Tucson Roadrunners

4:2

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

TUCSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

25%75%

xG: 2.03.2
High danger: 23
Chances: 513
Shots: 2334

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal34

5Scoring chances13

2High-danger chances3

1.97Expected goals3.23

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–9	2–1	1–0	0.9–0.5
2nd	10–18	3–10	1–3	0.8–2.1
3rd	4–7	0–2	0–0	0.3–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 32
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.23
GSAx: +1.23

Oscar Dansk

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.97
GSAx: -2.03

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:14Egor Sokolov (1–0)grade A · rebound · 19 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
1st 6:04Penalty
1st 14:00Max Szuber (2–0)low · 64 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
1st 19:49Nico Myatovic (2–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 5:28Penalty
2nd 10:47Penalty
2nd 13:27Carson Meyer (2–2)medium · 14 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
2nd 14:48Penalty
2nd 14:48Penalty
2nd 15:22Penalty
2nd 19:05Penalty
2nd 19:24Penalty
3rd 7:38Cameron Hebig (3–2)low · 59 ft · beat Oscar Dansk
3rd 19:18Kailer Yamamoto (4–2)empty net · low · 26 ft · beat Oscar Dansk