Chicago Wolves at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Chicago Wolves

2:5

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

CHICVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

19%81%

xG: 2.33.6
High danger: 16
Chances: 712
Shots: 3047

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal47

7Scoring chances12

1High-danger chances6

2.30Expected goals3.57

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	16–7	3–0	0–0	1.1–0.2
2nd	7–22	2–7	1–3	0.6–2.1
3rd	7–18	2–5	0–3	0.6–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Spencer Martin

Shots faced: 47
Saves: 42
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.57
GSAx: -1.43

Aleš Stezka

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 28
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.30
GSAx: +0.30

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:39Bradly Nadeau (1–0)low · 25 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
1st 19:52Penalty
2nd 3:30Daniel Sprong (1–1)high · 12 ft · beat Spencer Martin
2nd 5:18Jordan Martel (2–1)medium · 22 ft · beat Aleš Stezka
2nd 11:41Penalty
2nd 15:50Lleyton Roed (2–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Spencer Martin
3rd 0:36Daniel Sprong (2–3)high · 20 ft · beat Spencer Martin
3rd 3:05Penalty
3rd 4:36Jani Nyman (2–4)5v4 · high · 20 ft · beat Spencer Martin
3rd 8:07Penalty
3rd 8:07Penalty
3rd 8:07Penalty
3rd 15:20Brandon Biro (2–5)high · 16 ft · beat Spencer Martin