AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 11

Calgary Wranglers at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Calgary Wranglers
2:7
Final
Colorado Eagles

The sheet

CGYCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
49%51%
xG
4.44.6
High danger
98
Chances
1520
Shots
3540

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
COL above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal40
15Scoring chances20
9High-danger chances8
4.38Expected goals4.55

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–137–35–21.5–1.2
2nd14–175–94–32.1–1.9
3rd10–103–80–30.8–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Waltteri Ignatjew
Shots faced
40
Saves
33
Allowed
7
xGA
4.55
GSAx
-2.45
Kevin Mandolese
Shots faced
35
Saves
33
Allowed
2
xGA
4.38
GSAx
+2.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:51Martin Frk (1–0)high · 8 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 1st 6:54Matthew Phillips (1–1)medium · 13 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 1st 9:42Penalty
  • 1st 9:47Penalty
  • 1st 16:57Penalty
  • 2nd 1:32Penalty
  • 2nd 2:41Jason Polin (1–2)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 2nd 7:31Dryden Hunt (2–2)grade A · rebound · 4 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
  • 2nd 11:22Penalty
  • 2nd 11:22Penalty
  • 2nd 11:22Penalty
  • 2nd 12:52Jacob MacDonald (2–3)5v4 · high · 33 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 2nd 13:08Jacob MacDonald (2–4)5v4 · medium · 36 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 2:09Penalty
  • 3rd 2:09Penalty
  • 3rd 2:43Penalty
  • 3rd 13:37Oskar Olausson (2–5)low · 50 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 3rd 14:48Penalty
  • 3rd 18:57Chris Wagner (2–6)empty net · medium · 24 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew
  • 3rd 19:28Jason Polin (2–7)4v5 · medium · 25 ft · beat Waltteri Ignatjew