AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, January 12

Milwaukee Admirals at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Milwaukee Admirals
0:5
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

MILRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
8%92%
xG
1.33.7
High danger
08
Chances
316
Shots
2532

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal32
3Scoring chances16
0High-danger chances8
1.34Expected goals3.74

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–160–70–20.2–1.8
2nd9–61–40–30.5–0.9
3rd11–102–50–30.7–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−50:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL50:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso
Shots faced
25
Saves
25
Allowed
0
xGA
1.34
GSAx
+1.34
Matthew Murray
Shots faced
22
Saves
17
Allowed
5
xGA
2.69
GSAx
-2.31
Magnus Chrona
Shots faced
10
Saves
10
Allowed
0
xGA
1.05
GSAx
+1.05

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:43Penalty
  • 1st 9:26Jalen Luypen (0–1)grade A · 10 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 16:30Penalty
  • 1st 16:30Penalty
  • 1st 16:30Penalty
  • 1st 17:31Isaak Phillips (0–2)low · 62 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 18:39Matus Spodniak (0–3)medium · 16 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 3:18Cole Guttman (0–4)high · 9 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 12:51Penalty
  • 2nd 13:11Penalty
  • 2nd 13:11Penalty
  • 2nd 14:53Penalty
  • 2nd 18:41Brett Seney (0–5)medium · 17 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 8:05Penalty
  • 3rd 8:05Penalty
  • 3rd 8:05Penalty
  • 3rd 8:05Penalty
  • 3rd 10:50Penalty
  • 3rd 14:48Penalty
  • 3rd 18:13Penalty
  • 3rd 18:13Penalty