Iowa Wild at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Iowa Wild

2:5

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

IAONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

21%79%

xG: 2.13.2
High danger: 25
Chances: 712
Shots: 2333

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal33

7Scoring chances12

2High-danger chances5

2.08Expected goals3.16

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–15	3–6	2–2	0.8–1.5
2nd	8–12	2–4	0–1	0.6–1.1
3rd	7–6	2–2	0–2	0.6–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 28
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.16
GSAx: -1.84

Erik Portillo

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 21
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.08
GSAx: +0.08

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:10Penalty
1st 8:50Tyler Madden (0–1)5v4 · low · 26 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
1st 12:37Travis Boyd (1–1)high · 13 ft · beat Erik Portillo
1st 12:52Penalty
1st 12:52Penalty
1st 17:03Penalty
2nd 7:51Penalty
2nd 7:51Penalty
2nd 10:47Joseph Cecconi (2–1)low · 28 ft · beat Erik Portillo
2nd 13:49Glenn Gawdin (2–2)medium · 24 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 16:56Charles Hudon (2–3)low · 33 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 17:32Penalty
3rd 2:51Glenn Gawdin (2–4)high · 166 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 9:27Penalty
3rd 17:08Jack Studnicka (2–5)empty net · high · 10 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj