Chicago Wolves at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Chicago Wolves

2:5

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

CHICVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

31%69%

xG: 2.63.4
High danger: 47
Chances: 915
Shots: 3528

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal28

9Scoring chances15

4High-danger chances7

2.61Expected goals3.41

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–7	3–4	2–3	0.8–0.8
2nd	9–11	4–5	2–2	0.8–1.4
3rd	15–10	2–6	0–2	1.0–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CHI	3	11:55 of the 3rd	8:05	8:05	+0.011 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 33
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.61
GSAx: +0.61

Ruslan Khazheyev

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 23
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.41
GSAx: -1.59

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:04Penalty
1st 9:43Aleksi Heimosalmi (1–0)low · 41 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
1st 13:31Penalty
1st 16:56Penalty
1st 17:28Logan Morrison (1–1)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Ruslan Khazheyev
2nd 2:14Nick Swaney (2–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 4:41Penalty
2nd 7:35Brandon Biro (2–2)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Ruslan Khazheyev
2nd 8:36Daniel Sprong (2–3)low · 38 ft · beat Ruslan Khazheyev
3rd 3:20Penalty
3rd 4:40Ben Meyers (2–4)5v4 · high · 18 ft · beat Ruslan Khazheyev
3rd 11:03Penalty
3rd 11:55Lleyton Roed (2–5)empty net · high · 14 ft · beat Ruslan Khazheyev