Tucson Roadrunners at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Tucson Roadrunners

2:5

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

TUCCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

39%61%

xG: 3.13.3
High danger: 46
Chances: 712
Shots: 3432

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal32

7Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances6

3.08Expected goals3.35

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–13	1–6	0–3	0.5–1.6
2nd	14–13	4–5	3–2	1.4–1.2
3rd	13–6	2–1	1–1	1.2–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Murphy

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 32
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.08
GSAx: +1.08

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 27
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.35
GSAx: -1.65

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:50Penalty
1st 2:27Sam Honzek (0–1)5v4 · medium · slap · 30 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 8:37Dryden Hunt (0–2)low · wrist · 14 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 15:33Sam Morton (0–3)low · tip · 19 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 17:54Penalty
2nd 13:53Penalty
2nd 18:48Adam Klapka (0–4)high · backhand · 7 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 4:43Penalty
3rd 8:32Cameron Hebig (1–4)low · wrist · 19 ft · beat Connor Murphy
3rd 13:23Sam Lipkin (2–4)medium · wrist · 18 ft · beat Connor Murphy
3rd 16:30William Strömgren (2–5)empty net · low · wrist · 59 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 18:50Penalty
3rd 18:50Penalty
3rd 18:50Penalty
3rd 18:50Penalty
3rd 18:50Penalty