AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, January 14

Bakersfield Condors at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Bakersfield Condors
2:3
Final / OT
Colorado Eagles

The sheet

BAKCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
24%76%
xG
2.03.8
High danger
47
Chances
914
Shots
2133

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
COL above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal33
9Scoring chances14
4High-danger chances7
2.00Expected goals3.75

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–122–32–10.5–1.0
2nd9–85–32–31.0–0.8
3rd3–102–60–10.3–1.0
OT2–30–20–20.2–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

COL0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
COL117:21 of the 3rd2:390:59+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Olivier Rodrigue
Shots faced
33
Saves
30
Allowed
3
xGA
3.75
GSAx
+0.75
Adam Scheel
Shots faced
21
Saves
19
Allowed
2
xGA
2.00
GSAx
+0.00

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 8:50Penalty
  • 1st 14:36Connor Mayer (0–1)low · 59 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 2nd 1:50Penalty
  • 2nd 4:34Penalty
  • 2nd 9:09Penalty
  • 3rd 4:12Penalty
  • 3rd 4:23Matthew Savoie (1–1)5v4 · medium · 15 ft · beat Adam Scheel
  • 3rd 5:38Penalty
  • 3rd 17:07Penalty
  • 3rd 17:21James Hamblin (2–1)5v4 · medium · 17 ft · beat Adam Scheel
  • 3rd 18:20Jake Wise (2–2)medium · 21 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue
  • 3rd 18:35Penalty
  • OT 3:26Jayson Megna (2–3)grade A · 20 ft · beat Olivier Rodrigue