AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, January 14

Ontario Reign at Abbotsford Canucks

Abbotsford Centre · Abbotsford, BC

Ontario Reign
3:6
Final
Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

ONTABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
49%51%
xG
2.22.6
High danger
64
Chances
912
Shots
2626

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ABB above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal26
9Scoring chances12
6High-danger chances4
2.18Expected goals2.57

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–42–11–00.4–0.3
2nd7–122–62–20.5–1.2
3rd13–105–53–21.2–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ONT−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ONT35:51 of the 3rd14:099:08+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley
Shots faced
26
Saves
20
Allowed
6
xGA
2.57
GSAx
-3.43
Nikita Tolopilo
Shots faced
26
Saves
23
Allowed
3
xGA
2.18
GSAx
-0.82

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:36Jeff Malott (1–0)high · 16 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 1st 6:59Penalty
  • 1st 6:59Penalty
  • 1st 10:02Penalty
  • 1st 15:06Penalty
  • 1st 15:09Penalty
  • 1st 16:54Linus Karlsson (1–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 1st 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 4:52Aatu Räty (1–2)low · 49 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 2nd 7:47Dino Kambeitz (1–3)high · 16 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 2nd 14:59Glenn Gawdin (2–3)high · rebound · 8 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 19:38Nate Smith (2–4)medium · 12 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 3rd 4:11Penalty
  • 3rd 5:51Samuel Blais (2–5)5v4 · high · 26 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 3rd 7:08Charles Hudon (3–5)medium · 23 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 3rd 7:30Penalty
  • 3rd 7:30Penalty
  • 3rd 10:56Penalty
  • 3rd 13:23Penalty
  • 3rd 15:44Chase Wouters (3–6)empty net · low · 50 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 3rd 17:16Penalty
  • 3rd 17:16Penalty